Nearly $1 Trillion in California Homes Labeled “Low Risk” Despite Elevated Wildfire Danger

Wildfire risk in the United States is no longer confined to the edges of forests or traditionally high-risk zones. New analysis using ZestyAI’s property-level wildfire models shows that millions of homes classified as low or no wildfire risk under federal assessments face elevated wildfire danger when evaluated at the property level.

This analysis was recently featured in Vox, which examined how wildfire behavior is evolving — and why broad, backward-looking risk maps are increasingly misaligned with how fires spread today.

👉 Read the full article on Vox → https://www.vox.com/climate/476932/california-wildfire-los-angeles-risk-ai-housing-climate

Wildfire risk is closer — and more granular — than most maps show

Many homes damaged or destroyed in the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires were still classified as “low risk” under federal wildfire assessments. ZestyAI’s property-level analysis provides a different perspective.

By evaluating individual structures — including vegetation proximity, defensible space, building characteristics, and neighborhood-level fire dynamics — ZestyAI identified more than 3,000 properties worth approximately $2.4 billion in areas impacted by the Palisades and Eaton fires that showed elevated wildfire risk despite being classified as low or no risk under FEMA’s census-level assessments.

Across California, the classification gap is even broader. Approximately 1.2 million properties, representing roughly $940 billion in residential property value, are designated as low or no wildfire risk under federal maps, despite AI-driven property-level models indicating elevated wildfire danger.

Why census-level wildfire maps fall short

Wildfires do not spread evenly across census tracts or counties. Ember-driven ignition, structure-to-structure spread, wind conditions, and localized vegetation patterns create uneven outcomes, where one home survives and the next is destroyed.

Federal wildfire assessments are designed to provide a baseline view of community-level risk. FEMA has noted that its National Risk Index is not intended to serve as a property-specific risk assessment. When risk is evaluated at the individual property level, meaningful differences emerge that aggregated maps are not designed to capture.

What more granular wildfire risk intelligence enables

More detailed wildfire risk data can support:

• Targeted mitigation efforts at the property and neighborhood level
• More informed rebuilding and land-use decisions
• Clearer, more defensible underwriting and portfolio strategies
• Improved dialogue between insurers, regulators, and communities

A shift in how wildfire risk is understood

Wildfire risk is evolving faster than the systems built to measure it. Homes are no longer just adjacent to wildfire hazards; they increasingly influence how fires ignite, spread, and intensify, even in dense urban environments.

Property-level risk intelligence does not remove hard decisions. But without it, those decisions are made using an incomplete picture of where wildfire risk truly exists.

Read the full Vox article here.